THE UKRAINIAN IT SECTOR DURING BLACKOUTS: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON CLUSTERING OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATORS USING SAIDI/SAIFI INDICES
Abstract
The study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of SAIDI, SAIFI, and the number of supply interruptions, to compare their dynamics over 2022-2024, and to develop clustering models that identify groups of distribution system operators (DSOs) with similar performance profiles. The work seeks to reveal stable classification structures, distinguish leading and underperforming operators, and establish an analytical basis for further research on improving the quality and reliability of electricity supply in Ukraine. In parallel, by examining the approaches employed by IT companies to mitigate the consequences of blackouts, the study addresses the need to evaluate the key resilience pathways that enable business continuity and sustained service delivery to clients, with the goal of identifying measures with substantial potential to enhance resilience to power supply disruptions and connectivity constraints. The methodology combines indicator standardization, hierarchical clustering (dendrogram-based) and k-means clustering with robustness checks of cluster membership, as well as a typology of resilience measures (technical, process-related, and organizational), impact assessment of outages and mitigation actions, and a comparison of the economic feasibility of alternative solutions for coping with power interruptions. The results demonstrate stable operator groupings driven by company-attributable interruptions and planned works, and identify both a leader cluster and high-risk groups. A consistent year-to-year pattern is observed for the average duration of force-majeure-related outages across most DSOs – lower in 2023 than in 2022 and higher in 2024 than in 2022 – with several exceptions discussed separately. One of the key factors associated with materially reducing blackout impacts is the organizational dimension, encompassing both technical continuity measures (e.g., backup power arrangements) and methodological adaptations of workflows to anticipated interruptions; further development of this dimension has significant potential to improve the operational stability of IT companies. Practical value. The findings may support analysts, regulators, energy companies, and researchers in prioritizing network modernization and risk management, and may guide IT firms in strengthening their blackout-mitigation strategies and service continuity.
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