BUSINESS CYCLE MODELING IN THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR OF UKRAINE: FILTERING AND FORECASTING APPROACHES
Abstract
This article explores the phase dynamics of Ukraine’s renewable energy development in the context of structural transformations, regulatory shifts, and external shocks. The study applies a set of time series filtering techniques – Hodrick–Prescott, Butterworth, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters – to decompose the dynamics of renewable electricity generation into trend and cyclical components using annual data from 2000 to 2022. The HP filter outlines long-term growth, while the BW filter reveals high-frequency fluctuations associated with short-term shocks such as financial crises, war, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The CF filter, which is particularly effective with short samples, identifies structural shifts in the share of renewables in electricity generation and shows a strong correlation (K = 0.8378) with energy efficiency indicators. The analysis confirms the presence of pronounced business cycles in the renewable energy sector and highlights the necessity of adaptive governance sensitive to phase changes. Based on the results, the authors propose a strategic framework for anti-cyclical policy support, including mechanisms like Contracts for Difference, local project stimulation, digital monitoring platforms, and integration with energy efficiency programs. Special attention is given to the resilience and decentralization potential of renewables, particularly in post-war recovery scenarios. The findings offer valuable insights for long-term planning, sustainable financing, and resilience-building in Ukraine’s energy transition.
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