ECONOMIC GROWTH OF UKRAINE MODELING WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION
Abstract
The purpose of the investigation is to identify and specify the binary logistic regression model of the economy of Ukraine which can be used for forecasting the probability of economic growth. Methodology of research. To achieve the goal of the investigation, econometric modeling methods were used, namely logistic regression. Findings. The investigation implemented a binary logit model of the economy of Ukraine, in which the dependent variable can take on one of two values: economic growth or decline. Real gross capital accumulation, capital investments in the economy, final consumption expenditures of households, price index of manufacturers of industrial products, export of goods and services were chosen as factor indicators. On the basis of the conducted analysis (pseudo coefficients of determination, accuracy of classification of observations, assessment of statistical significance of relationships and forecast errors), it is possible to assert the adequacy, accuracy and good quality of the binary logistic regression model of economic growth of Ukraine. From the contingency table it can be concluded about the good quality of the developed model, since from the sample of quarterly values of macroeconomic indicators covering the period 2010-2020, the logistic regression model correctly classified 38 observations (88.4%). This means that using different values of factor characteristics in the model, in 9 out of 10 cases the observation will be assigned to the correct category (economic growth or decline). Practical value It is possible to predict the probability of the economic growth of Ukraine in a certain quarter, using the available values of factor variables. Such forecasting is especially relevant due to the fact that full-scale war is currently taking place in Ukraine, which make it impossible for a significant number of enterprises to operate. In addition, a significant drop in demand for goods and services is expected in 2022, due to which the fact that the Ukrainian economy is entering a state of crisis is obvious. The logit model of the economic growth of Ukraine can be used in modeling its recovery to pre-crisis times.
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